The 2020s is a decade with three presidential cycles, but only two midterms. This imbalance may be contributing to the lack of impact from recent midterm elections.
The 2022 midterm elections hit me with a sense of disappointment. The Democrats managed to cling on in the Senate, and the House flipped from narrowly Democratic to narrowly Republican. But what really stuck with me was that the GOP spent the next two years flailing to find common ground behind a single leader.
The Decade of Disconnection
Every other decade over the past hundred years has produced at least one midterm that made a big difference in Congress and in national politics more broadly. But not this decade. The imbalance between presidential cycles and midterms may be contributing to the lack of impact from recent midterm elections.
Midterms Matter Less Without Presidential Cycles High Stakes
Midterms do not attract the same level of voter participation or voter interest as presidential elections. When the White House is not at stake, 'low propensity voters' tend to tune out. Overall vote totals slide by about one-third in midterm elections compared to presidential years.
Big-Impact Midterms
Big-impact midterms have tended to come in presidents' second terms, when their popularity and political energy may be waning. But even those midterms are becoming less frequent. In the 2020s, we've had two midterms with little impact.
Looking back at history, we can see that big-impact midterms have been a rare occurrence in decades without a presidential cycle. The Great Depression was triggered by the Wall Street 'Crash of 1929', and in the 1930 midterm elections, the GOP lost eight Senate seats and 52 seats in the House. The Democrats took control of Congress outright in 1932 and held that majority through World War II.
So what does this mean for us? Will we see a big-impact midterm election in the future, or will the lack of presidential cycles continue to contribute to the lack of impact from midterms? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain: the 2020s are shaping up to be a decade with little impact from midterm elections.
Source: Google News
